Samia M. El-Marsafawy; M. K. Hassanein and K. M. Abdel-Latif ( 2012). Impact of Climate Change on the Behaviour of Some Rice varieties in Egypt
Researcher. 2012;4(X):X-X]. (ISSN: 1553-9865).
http://www.sciencepub.net/researcher.7
Abstract: Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. Inclusion of climatic risks in the design and implementation of development initiatives is necessary to reduce vulnerability and enhance sustainability. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is a necessary condition for reducing vulnerability, particularly for the most vulnerable regions, nations, and socioeconomic groups. Activities required for the enhancement of adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to those promoting sustainable development.This study employed the DSSAT simulation model to measure the adverse impacts of climate change on some rice varieties in Egypt. CERES-Rice model, embedded in the Decision Support system for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT3.5) were used for the crop simulations with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the Canadian Climate Center (CCCM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFD3) general circulation models (GCMs). Field experiments were carried out at different agroclimatological zones in 2009 and 2010 seasons to calibrate and validate the models. Simulation of rice productivity was done on data covering 25 years under the normal weather conditions and climate change conditions. Results indicated that future climatic changes would decrease the national production of rice crop in Egypt. The change percent in productivity of different rice varieties ranging from -34 to -47 % at Gemmiza area and -26 to -36 % at Sakha area compared with their productivity under current conditions. The highest tolerant variety to high temperature under future climate was found for V2 at the two areas. In addition, increase rice water consumption at Gemmiza area around 3.5 % and 8.0 % with increasing temperature 1.5°C and 3.5°C, respectively. However, at Sakha area it was increased around 3.0 % and 7.5 % for the same respective increasing temperatures. Concerning rice adaptation strategies, results indicated that select optimum sowing date could reduce the potential risks of climate change up to about 14 % at Gemmiza area and up to about 6 % at Sakha area. The optimum sowing date at Gemmiza and Sakha was found for 1st April and 25th April, respectively. On the other hand, more reduction of rice yield will be happened under sacristy of water supply. The reduction will be ranged from 41 to 57 %. However, increasing irrigation water up to 20 % could increase rice yield up to 22%. The highest variety under excess water supply is V2 at the two sites under study.
Keywords: (Climate change, adaptation, rice varieties, irrigation water. )
