AhmedM.S. Kheir, Ahmed El Baroudy,Mahmoud A. Aiad,Medhat G. Zoghdan,Mohamed A. Abd El-Aziz ,
Marwa G.M. Ali, Michael A. Fullen
( 2019). Impacts of Rising Temperature, Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Sea Level
on Wheat Production in North Nile Delta
Science of the Total Environment 651 (2019) 3161–3173
Abstract: Climate change poses a serious threat to arid and lowelevation coastal zones. Kafrelsheikh governorate, as a large agricultural and coastal region on the Egyptian North Nile Delta, is one of the most vulnerable areas to higher
temperature and global sea level rise. Two DSSAT wheat models (CERES and N-Wheat) were calibrated using a local cultivar (Misr3) grown under irrigated conditions in Egypt. Experimental data of two successive growing
seasons during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 were used for calibration using different treatments of irrigation, planting dates and fertilization. Both models simulated the phenology and wheat yield well, with root mean square deviation of b10%, and d-index N 0.80. Climate change sensitivity analysis showed that rising temperature by 1 °C to 4 °C decreased wheat yield by 17.6%. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased yield and could overtake some of the negative temperature responses. Sea level rise by 2.0m will reduce the extent of agricultural land on the North Nile Delta of Egypt by ~60% creating an additional challenge to wheat production in this region.
Keywords: (DSSAT , CERES, N-Wheat, Food security, Climate change.)
